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Journal of Dental Research
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Clinical

Applying Modern Survival Analysis Methods to Longitudinal Dental Caries Studies

T. Härkänen1,*, M.A. Larmas2, J.I. Virtanen2 and E. Arjas1

1 Rolf Nevanlinna Institute, PO Box 4, FIN-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland; and
2 Department of Preventive Dentistry and Cariology, Institute of Dentistry, PO Box 5281, FIN-90014 University of Oulu, Finland;

Correspondence: *corresponding author, Tommi.Harkanen{at}RNI.helsinki.fi

Before the 1960s, tooth-specific caries risk was reported to be highest at 2 to 4 years after eruption. We studied the tooth-specific caries risk in three contemporary age cohorts in Finland. All together, 4072 boys and girls were followed annually from age 6 to age 18+ years in three age cohorts born in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s. We used a survival model and Bayesian inferential methods in the statistical analyses to establish the secular changes during this period. The analysis was based on the caries risk in individual teeth as a function of tooth age instead of summary measures, such as DMFS values. Our first finding was a marked overall decrease of caries. Moreover, analyses of the 1960 and 1970 cohorts revealed that the risk in molar teeth was highest immediately after eruption; in the youngest cohort, however, the risks of individual teeth were so low that no such dependencies on tooth age could be established.

Key Words: dental caries • Bayesian inference • intensity model • measurement model • survival analysis

Journal of Dental Research, Vol. 81, No. 2, 144-148 (2002)
DOI: 10.1177/154405910208100212
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